Overview of the cryptocurrency market for October 2-3. Bitcoin price forecast

Uncertainty and signals for the decline were not long in coming. No matter how positive the expectations of market participants were, the technical analysis is inexorable. In our latest review, we talked about market uncertainty and the likely decline in the BTC / USD pair, which happened just last night on October 3.

On the hourly timeframe after a false breakdown of the lower boundary of the channel and short consolidation, the price went down, reaching the level of $ 6425. At the time of this writing, the price was adjusted slightly above $ 6450. All moving averages (MA9 and MA50) are above the price and tend down. The MACD indicator also speaks of a downward movement. If an upward movement does not start from this level, a scenario of testing levels in the range of $ 6400 — $ 6300 is quite likely then. The last level is very close to the lower boundary of the global triangle, in which the price moves all this year.

The 4-hour timeframe also speaks about the prevalence of bears in the market. MA9 crosses the MA50 from top to bottom, indicating a decline. MACD is also in the sales area.

On the daily timeframe we clearly see that very soon there will be a denouement and exit from the triangle. Slow MA50 limits growth at $ 6600, acting as a strong resistance for upward movement. The price is below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the sales area. The exit of the price from the channel down gives all the chances for bears to test the levels below in the range of $ 6400 — $ 6300.

One gets an impression that the improving news background all of September, as it were, warmed and relaxed all the players in the market, thus giving powerful arguments in favour of growth on fundamental analysis. Moreover, the blockchain industry gained the support of the 42nd US President Bill Clinton. He spoke about the fact that excessive regulation of the blockchain and cryptocurrency area may hinder their development. He believes in technology and supposes that it has the potential to apply to different countries and social classes.

«Transformations and changes are stunning in their size. However, everything can be destroyed if we approach them with negative identity policies and socio-economic requirements,» he said.

Following him, the Chairman of the US Stock Exchange Trading Commission (CFTC), Christopher Giancarlo, spoke about the bright future of cryptocurrencies and their ability to compete with traditional markets. For his part, he also promised to do everything to simplify the entry of institutional investors into the market.

Recalling the news of last weeks about the lifting of bans on advertising of crypto products in Google, it becomes clear that the market is preparing for growth. However, even if we predict a price increase, the opposite development of events cannot be ruled out. It is this scenario, in our opinion, that we are working on now.

We want to warn readers: the market is deceptive — no matter how positive the news background and some particular news pieces are, you should always be on alert. It is likely that it is from current values that the price will go up without a test of levels lower, but while we are squeezed by a triangle it is too early to draw conclusions and assert about a trend change.

We recommend to refrain from trading and to become observers today.