The company's prospects are primarily dependent on how successful the launch of its Starlink project will be. If SpaceX fails to implement it, its value may become by an order of magnitude less.
A team of Morgan Stanley Research analysts has compiled a report on the investment potential of SpaceX. It was published by Business Insider.
The specialists give the key role to the Starlink project: the company's future largely depends on whether or not Elon Musk will be able to deploy a full-fledged network of communication satellites.
SpaceX's initial plans provided for the launching of a 12,000 satellite system, but now the company is seeking FCC permission to use additional orbits to ensure a more cost efficient development of the project.
After the launch of the first 60 satellites in May 2019, CNBC estimated the total value of SpaceX at $33 billion. SpaceX estimates its Starlink project at about $10 billion. Elon Musk expects the satellite network to generate between $30 to $50 billion in revenue per annum for the company.
As of today, Morgan Stanley values SpaceX at $52 billion, and if the entire satellite network is successfully implemented, the company’s value will rise to $120 billion. However, the analysts have also considered an alternative scenario. If the company does not gain leadership in orbiting satellites, it will not be able to be competitive with its reusable rockets only and its value will drop down to $5 billion, i.e. about 10 times.
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